The markets have reacted positivly to the news that a US federal court has declared Tariffs unlawful and blocked all Tariffs. We still feel that Trumps actions will push the world economy into an economic resessesion well to tell you the truth we have been in one for a while and lying about economic figures thinking creative visulisation and chanting is going to make the economy recover is rather far fetched where are all the great realistic new things that are going to drive the economy? Trump’s actions have taken a shine off of investing in start-ups or expanding in the USA for a period of time, as most of the world’s economies are left with a bitter taste in their mouths. On the good front, Toyota’s sales rose four months in a row in April. What about other car manufacturers? Is the automobile industry now oversupplied with car manufacturers? Is it ripe for some M&A activity and consolidation?
Homework: Charts 100, 15, 30, 60 moving averages. Check for resistance and support not only on moving averages but also on trend lines. Normally, the market will close a gap, so check out Gaps in Charts and what sort of Gaps they are. Patterns and Stochastics with the news that the Federal Court finds Tariffs unlawful, we may see a breakout to the upside, but we feel this will be short-lived as there are a large number of stock charts with gaps to the downside. HSBC on the LSE, NASDAQ Composite, Burberry on the LSE, FTSE 100, Barclays on the LSE, Goldman Sachs, ADP, DAX, Gold, Brent Oil, Rolls Royce, JP Morgan Chase, Camden National, Dow Jones and the CAC 40 this small portfolio gives a good indication of the markets look at daily bar charts. What is your position? How are you doing paper trading one month, Straddles, Puts or Calls the VIX, which is a measure of volatility, which is a part of pricing an option, could indicate some options are expensive and you’re better off trading the underlying. With the small portfolio what are the Yields on Bonds including Government Bonds 10 year (Paper Trade Price not Yield) and see how you get on. remember Credit Ratings and look into history of defaults. And what are the historic yields on Equities the past has no garantee of future yields except in Bonds ( if you lock in the yield ) unless they default. What do I mean by locking in the yield? What is the time frame for a short medium and long Bond? Let me give you a hint you buy a Bond at 7% yield and if you own it what is your yield at the end of the life of the Bond even if the Bond trades up or down? so what have you locked in? What is an Interest rate SWAP on Bonds and how do they bring down your Bond Payments for the Bond Issuer what are Caps Floors and Collars? Many years ago when most of you were not born lots of Building Socities and Councils lost a fortune on SWAPS through bad advice and not really understanding the risks and down side. What now for G7 and G20 interest rates? How will it affect Bond Prices Spreads and SWAPS? If you buy a bond how often do you recieve a payment every day every week every month every three months every six months or at the end of the life of the Bond? What are Junk Bonds and why are they called Junk? With the amount of money involved in the Bond Market can you trade it like FX or Equities? Bond Desk are missing a great oppertunity they can trade more than the underlying and lots of Futures exchanges have Futures and Traded Options on Futures on Gov Bonds for instance what is happening in South African Fixed Income and what are the credit ratings always understand your maximum loss and risks and always talk to your broker for advice. Notice we don’t give a position. Look into the CDX and iTraxx learn about it the market is small compared to what it was as it caused a economic depression. Weapons of mass destruction is what Buffet called credit default swaps.
Homework: We set this some time ago. I hope you are all keeping your own calculations on a basket of goods that go into calculating inflation. How does inflation affect your investments? What are your predictions for inflation? How will it affect interest rate movements, and what is happening in the domestic and global housing market? what happens to the domestic currency normally as Interest rates rise and fall in that country? How can it possibly affect your investment, should you want to repatriate or switch currencies or into an investment in another currency? Also, we have banged on about this in the past, what are Capital Controls and where do they apply and for how much Capital? Debate if Capital Controls are a good idea they may stop money from being taken out of the country but also hinder money being invested into the country and capital markets.
Means testing state pensions is the latest madness whats the point of National Insurance contrabutions as a percentage of earnings the largest erners if they are not cheating taxes contribute more all that is happening is the UK is becoming a place less attractive to live in and be a citizen of.
Thanks to my hacker!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Milken
Warning: Trading can seriously damage your wealth. Always read the terms and conditions of your broker! We do not solicit investment, send out texts, emails or faxes or make telephone calls.
Leave a Reply